Monday, August 24, 2009

A Crazier Future - Nassim Taleb

A Crazier Future is a lecture by Nassim Taleb, a former trader, now a statistician with soul of epistemologist and the author of the Black Swan.  He summarizes the premise and points of the Black Swan in the first half of the video then takes questions during the second half.
The title Black Swan refers to before the discovery of Australia, all swans were white.  That is to say, time and time again in Europe swans were only white therefore it was inferred that all swans were white.  But with the discovery of Australia, a black swan was discovered and the theory-thought-to-be-law that swans were white was proved wrong in a single instance.
This ties into the fact we often face low-probability events (like encountering black swan when none had previously existed) with high-impact outcomes in the world we live in, particularly in economics.  Traditional statistics cannot forecast such events because it operates the same way the Europeans did with the swans - made an inference based on incomplete data.

Great video, enjoy.

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